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☆ The consumer slowdown is here and its flashing a recession warning for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer spending is slowing, and it's a warning shot for the US economy as it navigates the approach to a soft or a hard landing. Meanwhile, March retail sales were revised downward, with spending rising 0.6% instead of the initially reported 0.7%. The retail sales number was sluggish with a capital 'S,'" economist David Rosenberg said in a note this week. A hard landing has been postponed partly because of the strength of consumer spending in 2023, he wrote previously. The New York Fed sees a 50% chance that the economy will tip into recession by April 2025.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Primerica, Danielle DiMartino Booth, who's, Booth, Schwab, I've Organizations: Service, Business, Conference, New, Fed Locations: American, York

☆ From a 65% stock market crash to an imminent recession, here's a roundup of recent high-profile bear forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Despite a stock market that's less than 1% away from record highs, bearish forecasts are out in full force. And a weakening in the labor market will crush investor confidence and send the stock market falling by as much as 30%. BCA Research: A recession in early 2025 will cause 30% stock market declineBCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim warned that a 30% correction in the stock market could be sparked by a recession early next year. Rosenberg famously predicted the 2008 recession, but his consistently bearish economic outlooks since then have largely fallen flat. Advertisement"Forward earnings rose to a record high during April, consistent with a solid labor market.

Persons: —, they're, Gary Shilling, we've, Shilling, BI's Jennifer Sor, we're, John Hussman, Hussman, wouldn't, Roukaya Ibrahim, Ibrahim, David Rosenberg, We're, Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, landers Organizations: Service, Wall, Hussman Investment Trust, BCA, Bloomberg Locations: Wall

☆ 'This is where you start bear markets from': A notorious bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stock-market conditions resemble a major peak more than any time in the last 100 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.

Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, —, it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish

☆ The US may be 'sleepwalking' into a recession as cracks form in the labor market, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US could be "sleepwalking" into a recession, and signs of a downturn in key areas of the economy are starting to show, according to top economist David Rosenberg. That's a strong sign the economy is weakening, as manufacturing has only contracted on two occasions since 1997 without the economy later slipping into recession, Rosenberg noted. The 2-10 Treasury yield curve, a notoriously accurate recession indicator, has signaled a coming downturn since July 2022. The labor market is cracking, a slowdown in services activity is dragging on real-time growth, and forward looking financial signals still point to a coming slowdown," Rosenberg said. Rosenberg has been warning of a coming recession for months — and fears of a downturn are rising as investors anticipate the Fed keeping interest rates higher-for-longer.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, We're, That's Organizations: Service, Business, Treasury

☆ People in Korea are buying gold from vending machines and convenience stores amid 2024's frenzy for the precious metal
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Korea's convenience stores and vending machines are selling gold, with younger people flocking to buy. Bite-sized gold bars have been selling since April, weighing in between 0.1 and 1.87 grams. AdvertisementGold bars are displayed for sale alongside packaged kimchi and ramen in convenience stores across Korea, with the yellow metal gaining among younger consumers in 2024. AdvertisementYoung Koreans are leading the pack of buyers snapping up gold from CU stores, accounting for 41.3% of the total purchases, according to data from the company's app. However, the country's central bank hasn't joined the gold rush, keeping its gold reserves steady at 104.4 tons since 2013.

Persons: —, hasn't, China —, David Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Printing Corporation, Chosun, CNBC, World Gold Council Locations: Korea, South, South Korea, Asia's, China

☆ The US may already be in recession as job cuts accelerate, research CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy may already be mired in recession, Danielle DiMartino Booth told Bloomberg TV. Downside labor revisions and rising job losses indicate a downturn has hit, the QI Research CEO said. AdvertisementThe US is already mired in recessionary downturn, and rising job losses prove it, veteran forecaster Danielle DiMartino Booth told Bloomberg TV. AdvertisementBy that standard, the rule was triggered in October of last year, according to recently published labor revisions through the third quarter of 2023, indicating job losses of 192,000. Other analysts have also projected rising recession risk, hand-in-hand with a labor market fallout.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, —, there's, it's, Booth, Goldman Sachs, payrolls, David Rosenberg Organizations: Bloomberg TV, Downside, QI, Service, Bloomberg, Fox Business

☆ 'Big downside revisions coming': A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns jobs data will shockingly turn sour in the next 6 months — and says a stock-market AI bubble is starting to unrav
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury

☆ The Fed is focusing on 'flawed' data and keeping rates high will result in a big policy mistake, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe Federal Reserve's fixation on a streak of "flawed" data to justify keeping interest rates higher for longer is bound to spark a policy mistake, according to top economist David Rosenberg. "The Fed seems to be focusing not just on flawed data, but on headlines only. Finally, he noted that the Fed's long-term view of the economy as still hot based on non-farm payroll data was dashed by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Business Employment Dynamics. Rosenberg pointed out that the payroll report may be exaggerating actual employment by 70,000 per month. Meanwhile, BED data indicated a 192,000 drop in private employment in Q3 of last year, whereas private job payroll data reported a significant 521,000 increase in that time.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Fed, Quarterly, Employment Dynamics

☆ We are going into a credit picker's market, says Oaktree's David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe are going into a credit picker's market, says Oaktree's David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Oaktree head of liquid performing credit, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss how Rosenberg sees the current cycle of rates, what it would take for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, and more.

Persons: Oaktree's David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Oaktree, Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Oil prices drop as reports say Israel and Hamas could soon head for cease-fire talks
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices fell as reports on Monday indicated that Israel and Hamas could engage in cease-fire talks this week. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementOil prices dropped Monday with energy markets eyeing fading geopolitical risks as Israel and Hamas reportedly move toward cease-fire talks. Cease-fire discussions could begin as soon as Tuesday if both parties agree to meet Cairo, the report said. Analysts say they see as much as a 20% surge for stocks in the sector as conflict and supply disruptions keep prices elevated.

Persons: Antony Blinken, —, Brent, Israel, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Hamas, West Texas Intermediate, The New York Times, United, Reuters, Bank Locations: Israel, Cairo, United States, Saudi Arabia, Rafah, Russia, Ukraine, OPEC

☆ Billionaire investor David Einhorn shares an overlooked theory for why gold prices have spiked so much
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The recent gold rally is counterintuitive, as high interest rates typically make bullion less attractive. But billionaire investor David Einhorn has a theory that he shared in his latest investor letter. Einhorn suggests that gold's rally is potentially due to countries in the East buying gold from Western nations. To explain the strong run for gold, billionaire investor David Einhorn offered a potential theory in his latest letter to investors published this week. Others, like billionaire investor Ray Dalio, say gold can hedge risks stemming from high government debt levels.

Persons: David Einhorn, Einhorn, —, there's, David Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni, Ray Dalio Organizations: Service, Federal, Greenlight, World Gold, People's Bank of Locations: China, People's Bank of China, India, Singapore

☆ Gold prices have another 29% upside as China's central bank continues its buying spree, famed economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Gold prices are set to continue their record bull run to $3,000 per ounce, according to David Rosenberg. Rosenberg highlighted a buying spree from China's central bank as one reason why prices will rise. AdvertisementFamed economist David Rosenberg is feeling good about where gold prices are headed. But its share of gold reserves is tiny compared to other central banks, with the global average being 13%. That means there could be plenty of runway left for China to keep adding to its gold reserves.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, it's Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed Locations: China

☆ Supply and demand curves are shifting in a disinflationary pattern, says Rosenberg Research founder
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSupply and demand curves are shifting in a disinflationary pattern, says Rosenberg Research founderDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research founder and president, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the bond trade, why the Federal Reserve is pivoting, and more.

Persons: Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Supply, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve

☆ There are 3 reasons the US hasn't seen a recession yet, according to top economist David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A recession has been avoided so far for three key reasons, economist David Rosenberg said. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US has avoided a long-called-for recession for three reasons, but it doesn't mean a near-term downturn has been taken off the table, according to economist David Rosenberg. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business

☆ The stunning strength of the US economy means the soft landing may already be here, Evercore founder says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy may have already stuck the soft landing, according to Evercore founder Roger Altman. AdvertisementThe US economy may have successfully avoided a recession and is already gliding toward a soft landing, according to Evercore founder Roger Altman. AdvertisementThose are big reasons stocks remain buoyant despite a sell-off this week as markets repriced expectations for Fed rate cuts. "Everything by and large is going right in the US economy," Altman said, noting that inflation is usually sticky as it falls from a peak. Arguably, the soft landing already has happened."

Persons: Roger Altman, Altman, —, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, CNBC, Atlanta Fed, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The New, Fed, National Association for Business Economics Locations: —

☆ The job market looks rock-solid, but there are 4 signs it's weakening as labor trends mirror past recessions
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewToday's job market looks to be on solid footing, but there are subtle signs that hiring is starting to weaken, upping the odds that a recession strikes. The job market is already flashing key signs of weakness, and a hiring slowdown could be around the corner, Wall Street strategists have warned. Here are four signs the stellar US job market may be about to stumble:Advertisement1. But job-cut announcements rose to 257,254 over the first quarter, according to the career transitioning firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The risk of a coming recession could rise if the job market continues to slow, some forecasters have warned.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, it's Organizations: Service, Street, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Challenger, National Federation of Independent Business, CNBC

☆ Jamie Dimon had a lot to say in his annual letter to shareholders
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at Jamie Dimon's annual letter to shareholders and why this edition is so different . The big storyDimon sounds offWin McNamee/Getty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIWhen Jamie Dimon talks, people tend to listen. Dimon's annual letter to shareholders grabs the business world's attention in ways most executives can only imagine. Dimon described the tech as just as innovative and impactful as the printing press, steam engine, electricity, and the internet, writes Business Insider's Jyoti Mann. The polarization of politics was something Dimon touched on in his letter, urging people to resist being "weaponized."

Persons: —, Jamie Dimon's, Jamie's, Win McNamee, Chelsea Jia Feng, Jamie Dimon, Larry Fink, Dimon, Insider's Jyoti Mann, BI's Theron Mohamed, BI's Juliana Kaplan, Alex Brandon, Rebecca Zisser, he's, it'd, David Rosenberg, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Elon Musk, Tesla, Musk, Gabor Cselle, Brooks Kraft, Zers, they'll, they've, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, JPMorgan, Democratic, Monetary Fund, Microsoft, Google, Twitter, Brooks Kraft LLC, Getty, Warner Bros, Oxford High, Boeing Locations: Pennsylvania, Asia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, London, New York

☆ A famed recession indicator is flashing red even as financial markets price in zero chance of a downturn in the coming year, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A handful of indicators suggest a hard landing is on the way, top economist David Rosenberg warned. A famed recession indicator in the job market is flashing levels similar to the last three downturns. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The Rosenberg Research founder pointed to several warning signs the US could be on the precipice of a downturn, despite the economy looking strong on the surface. In particular, he pointed to the Sahm Rule — a famous recession indicator that flashes when the three-month moving average of the US unemployment rate climbs 50 basis points from a 12-month low.

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns the AI and economic recovery narratives fueling stocks are weak as analyst optimism sours — and says the Fed is fueling a bubble as valuation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking

☆ The US economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last century, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last 120 years. The ECRI's Leading Economic Index has started to decline in the past year, top economist Lakshman Achuthan said. AdvertisementThe US economy is flashing a classic recession warning that has only shown a false positive once in the last century, according to top economist Lakshman Achuthan. AdvertisementHiring strength seems to lie in non-discretionary areas of the market — which typically occurs before a recession, Achuthan said, as consumers prioritize needs over wants. Job growth in education and health rose around 4% last year, though job growth in every other sector trended near 0%, ECRI data shows.

Persons: Lakshman Achuthan, —, Achuthan, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Cycle Research, Rosenberg Research, Atlanta Fed

☆ 'Good times beget good times': JPMorgan Asset Management's global strategy chief explains why expensive US stocks can keep rising — and 4 top places to invest now
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Read previewHistory says US stocks' idyllic start to the year is sustainable, as does the chief global strategist at $2.9 trillion JPMorgan Asset Management. Advertisement"The market has momentum, and so good times beget good times," Kelly told Business Insider in a recent interview. JPMorgan Asset Management"There is a certain amount of fluff in those valuations, and I think that is somewhat dangerous," Kelly said. JPMorgan Asset ManagementOutside equities, Kelly said investors should consider adding exposure to alternative assets like real estate and transportation. "The overall buffet table of investment opportunities is being expanded, even for individual investors," Kelly said.

Persons: —, David Kelly, Kelly, David Rosenberg, Jon Wolfenbarger, Rosenberg, Kelly doesn't, it's, Kelly didn't Organizations: Service, Asset Management, Business, JPMorgan Asset Management, Bulls, Apple, JPMorgan, Management, Companies, Nikkei, P Transportation, Trust Nasdaq Transportation Locations: Truist, Europe, United Kingdom, Japan

☆ Now is probably a good time to hedge against downside risk in the stock market. Here are 4 ways you can protect your portfolio — including 2 that are historically cheap.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But with the market at an all-time high, now is probably a good time to hedge against potential downside, experts say. That's especially the case because there's an elevated degree of risk facing stocks, and the cost of some insurance measures is historically cheap. Related storiesThe S&P 500 also looks overextended on a technical basis, according to many measures. AdvertisementRosenberg Research"The definition of a stretched market is one when the S&P 500 gaps 14% or more above the 200-day trendline. Beyond extreme, in fact — back to 1928, the S&P 500 has only drifted this far above the moving average 7% of the time," Rosenberg said.

Persons: Jim Smigiel, they've, Louis Fed, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Steve Sosnick, we're, Smigiel, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bank of America's, Survey, Bank of America, SEI, Fed, Louis Fed Inflation, MRB Partners, Rebels, Rosenberg Research, Interactive Brokers Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Suez

☆ A 32-year market vet warns the S&P 500 is set to fall 50%-70% in the years ahead with valuations at historic highs — and says that an imminently weakening labor market will be the catalyst for the cra
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.

Persons: —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's

☆ Sam Altman's act may be wearing thin
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we're looking into how some in Silicon Valley are starting to sour on OpenAI's Sam Altman . AdvertisementFrom hardball tactics when raising funds to relentless self-mythologizing about his role in the future of tech, Altman's act is wearing thin on some . Even VCs uninterested in AI deals are quickly becoming servants to Altman's AI empire. Big market, fall hard.

Persons: —, Baltimore's Francis Scott Key, Sam Altman, Alastair Grant, Rebecca Zisser, Darius Rafieyan, Altman, Elon Musk, à, Steve Jobs, VCs, Samantha Stokes, Eric Baradat, Torsten Slok, David Rosenberg, BofA, Drew Watson, Birkin, Abanti Chowdhury, Elon, Don Lemon, that's, Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Google's, Meta, Dave Calhoun, Aaron Schwartz, Adam Neumann, Neumann, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Business, Service, Baltimore Fire Department, Tech, Apple Vision, NFL, ChatGPT, Kruze Consulting, Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Abanti, Getty Images, Street Locations: Silicon Valley, Plenty, Big, Orlando, New York, London, Chicago

☆ 'The higher they go, the harder they fall': A veteran bear says US stocks could crash 39% as earnings disappoint — but investors can manage risk by making these 10 moves now
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"And I sort of look at the stock market right now as that clown of the circus blowing up the balloon." That earnings multiple is based on future earnings prospects, the economy, and interest rates. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the yield curve steepens, he said big banks should bring opportunities. "There will be areas to dip your toes in, but not for the overall market," Rosenberg said. He's bullish on long-term bonds and gold as the Fed cuts interest rates.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, he'll, they've, It's, " Rosenberg, he's, He's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity, Federal Reserve, Nikkei Locations: Japan

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